Olympic surfing and its qualification criteria, like the Pan American itself, was in some ways a nightmare for surfers, coaches and managers. It is basically a new world and there are several rules that must contemplate all possible scenarios.

This was one that apparently went unnoticed: The official ranking system document (see below) clearly states that to qualify for the 2019 World Surfing Games an athlete must place in the top 30 to pass “the ISA quality control ranking.”

“If there is no available athlete from any of the continents who has completed the ISA quality control, the spot will be awarded to the next best ranked surfer, who is not yet qualified, regardless of the continent,” the rules clearly state.

And this situation comes down to the following if we look at the results:
For Europe: Anat Lelior qualified (provisionally) comfortably, she was placed ninth
For Africa: Bianca Buitendag did her part, finishing third
For Asia: Shino Matsuda also, after placing 15th.

In Oceania, which excludes the Australians who qualify through the CT, the competition was very tight, with Ella Williams placing 29th.

If the Kiwi had not made it through her final heat, Olympic qualification would have gone to Sofia Mulanovich, who, of course, according to the rules, is the first in line not to have qualified and regardless of the region to which a place was allocated to Tokyo 2020.

DUKE consulted various specialist sources who confirmed that they shared the same interpretation.

This leaves a couple of questions:

What happens if two Kiwis now qualify for Tokyo 2020 via the two top events left (CT or WSG 2020)? Will Sofia go or was her chance only at that event? If Sofia doesn't go, who will?

Because in this sense an important chance could open up for the Peruvian: South Africa can perfectly achieve its quota of two female athletes in the 2020 World Surfing Games and thus not use the one from the 2019 WSG. If that happens, there will be no more Africans within the top 30, if something like that happens, will Sofia go?

So what would happen if Sofia was provisionally placed in Tokyo 2020 (if she didn't make it into the top 30) and then, at the 2020 World Surfing Games, a Peruvian athlete who is neither Sofia nor Daniella Rosas qualified? Who would have gone to Tokyo 2020, Daniella for Lima 2019 or Sofia for WSG 2019?

Everything seems to indicate that the World Cup has more importance than the Pan American Games. But these are questions worth asking and to which we must definitely seek the answer.

Official qualification criteria for Tokyo 2020 by DUKE He Scribd