As things stand after the French stage of the CT, Brisa Hennessy can only be removed from Tokyo 2020 by two surfers, Silvana Lima from Brazil and Paige Hareb from New Zealand.

The Brazilian is in a much more comfortable position than the Kiwi, as she is not only higher in the ranking but also has no discards (8 out of 10 stages) due to having been injured at the beginning of the season.

Therefore, it can be safely said that even with the Brazilian's best result, even if she beats Brisa, there is a good chance that she will still make it to Tokyo. The problem in this case, however, would be that she would be left out of the classification by means of the CT.

Hennessy can guarantee herself a place in Tokyo 2020 by making it to the round of 16, which means finishing ninth at least, and by beating New Zealander Paige Hareb without adding any ranking points, meaning she can't make it past the elimination round.

In that case, Brisa, who is tenth with 25495, will reach ninth place in Peniche, which will take her to 27060, which if Hareb loses in Portugal, will leave her without any chance of overtaking the Costa Rican, even if she wins later in Hawaii (in that case, Hareb, who has 17750 points, could reach a maximum of 26705 –with a victory in Hawaii-, which would not be enough to overtake the Costa Rican).

The rest of the scenarios are as follows:

-If Brisa fails to advance a round, the final will go to Hawaii regardless of Hareb's result in the event.

-If both finish ninth, the final will go to Hawaii

-In the other scenarios, Brisa must place one series ahead of the Kiwi to guarantee herself a place in Tokyo 2020 (if she finishes 5th and Hareb 9th, 3rd and Hareb 5th, 2nd and Hareb 3rd, 1st and Hareb 2nd). In all these scenarios, the Costa Rican qualifies for Tokyo 2020.

No matter what happens with Silvana Lima.

The key with the Brazilian is the reclassification to the CT through the CT for Hennessy, because the Brazilian, as was said, has no discards and adds all the points she earns.

As a result, Silvana is ranked 12th, but she actually has more points than Nikki Van Dijk if her discard is taken into account. This leaves Hennessy's permanence in the top 10 in a bit of a sensitive position.

If Lima is ranked fifth this week in Portugal and Hennessy does not make it through the series, she will be ahead in the rankings. The same happens with Brisa ninth and Silvana third, Brisa fifth and Silvana second.

If she does not finish in the top 10, Hennessy is in a fairly comfortable position in the QS, where she is sixth and with the good news that ahead of her are Caroline Marks and Tatiana Weston who will not be using their QS ranking.