Sitting in 10th place in the rankings (not including two-time qualifiers) prior to the Haleiwa stage, Carlos Muñoz still has a mathematical chance of qualifying for the CT.

With Callum Robson advancing to the quarter-finals and Jackson Baker losing but earning 700 points for himself, Carlos now sits virtually in 11th position and 12th are the qualifiers*.

Robson now has 11900 points and is guaranteed and Baker has 10700 and surpasses Muñoz who has 10650.

There are five surfers who can still overtake Muñoz, but three of them, Kalani Ball, Ian Gentil and Billy Stairmand, need to place either first or second to overtake him and that spot can only be occupied by two people.

Then Samuel Pupo and Jacob Willcox are in a threatening situation for the Costa Rican, so much so that if the Brazilian makes it to the semis he would be displaced to virtual position 13. If he loses, placing both third and fourth, Pupo would not reach Muñoz who has 10650 points in the ranking.

For his part, Australian Willcox needs to reach the final to beat Carlos and then end his hopes. With his score line, placing fourth would mean for the Australian to add 6100 to 3500 and 2000, totalling 11600.

The threat from the three lowest in the rankings is as follows:

-Kalani Ball only surpasses Muñoz if he wins the event.
-Billy Stairmand and Ian Gentil only surpass Carlos if they are placed first or second.
-These three could not, for obvious reasons, be placed in the first three and second.

Translating this into the quarterfinals that have already been determined, what has to happen for Carlos Muñoz to qualify for the CT is the following:

CF 1: Jake Marshall vs Jacob Willcox vs Ezekiel Lau vs Jack Robinson

Jacob Willcox has to lose and it doesn't matter who advances from the rest because they are either already members of the CT (Robinson) or already classified and higher in the ranking than Muñoz.

CF 2: John John Florence vs Conner Coffin vs Shion Crawford vs Callum Robson

It doesn't affect any result for the interests of the Costa Rican. It can be said that in a potential semi-final encounter, it may be more difficult for Willcox to face John John and Conner, but they could also have a bad day. It is mere speculation.

CF 3: Griffin Colapinto vs. Ian Gentil vs. Kalani Ball vs. Kanoa Igarashi

It is in Muñoz's interest that Colapinto and Igarashi advance, they are members of the CT and the points they add do not affect his interests and they also eliminate two threats.
CF 4: Liam O'Brien vs Billy Stairmand vs Connor O'Leary vs Samuel Pupo

It would be in Muñoz's interest to see Liam O'Brien and Connor O'Leary advance, as they are above him in the rankings and would leave out two threats.

Translating this to the case where Ball, Stairmand or Gentil advance, what has to happen is that the first does not win and the second and third do not manage to win or place second.

The same goes for Willcox, if he advances, he must not reach the grand final.

If Pupo advances, he will surpass him and there will only be one spot available to enter the CT.

*A previous version of this article stated that Carlos was "virtually at 12", when he was virtually at 11. Apologies to all involved. This is what made it so that even though Pupo passed, Carlos still has a chance to qualify.