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A combination of weather factors created the perfect breeding ground for a historic swell to develop and is expected to hit Olympic venue Teahupoo on July 10 and 11, The Australian website Swellnet reported in a note signed by its main forecaster, Craig Brokensha.

The characteristics of the swell, the note points out, suggest that the waves will break at 15 feet and will be similar to those seen on August 27, 2011, when Nathan Fletcher surfed one of the most incredible waves in history (among many others from that day).

“It will create a spectacle that is only witnessed every few years. The swell will be in the 15-foot-plus range, or five to six times overhead, and it will definitely be tow-in only. The quality of the swell will depend on local winds which we will be monitoring closely over the next few days,” says Bokensha.

“Over the next few days, a significant frontal progression will develop in the Southern Ocean south of New Zealand, pressured by the unprecedented high pressure system currently straddling southern Australia. It is this pressure between the high pressure system and polar westerly winds that will set in motion a swell that, from this point of view, will invite comparison with the infamous Code Red swell,” he adds.

He explains: “The driver will be a strong Long Wave Trough (LWT) node developing southeast of New Zealand. The long wave trough is a feature of the upper atmosphere that effectively steers surface features, such as cold fronts, towards where it is amplified. With the LWT focused southeast of New Zealand, we will see Southern Ocean storms heading towards this region over the next week.”

“During today and tomorrow, an initial polar frontal system will generate a broad band of westerly gales south of New Zealand, setting in motion an active sea state. An active sea state is essentially a rough sea surface that acts as a prep for any subsequent storms, allowing wave growth to accelerate faster than in a placid sea state,” he concludes.

Olympic surfing will take place between July 27 and July 5, on the four best wave days of that waiting period.