Perhaps it is too easy a prediction to make, but I am writing it today, September 1, 2023, more than five months before the ISA World Surfing Games that will take place in Margara, Puerto Rico between February 22 and March 2.

There are several reasons, and I will detail them below:

-Medina, Toledo and Chumbinho: A very strong triumvirate, one of the strongest on the planet, could perhaps be better at a competitive level if Italo were there instead of Chumbinho, due to the style of the championship that it is (the one from Saquarema is a more classy surfer).

-Motivation level at 5000: The best surfer in Brazilian history at Teahupoo is Gabriel Medina, who is also the first to be left out of the WSL finals in a painful final against Jack Robinson.

-Motivation level at 5000: Medina was the biggest loser at Tokyo 2020, coming away empty-handed after losing a painful semi-final to Kanoa's aerial pass and in the battle for bronze against Australian Owen Wright.

The band and Medina himself, captain of Brazilian surfing, are motivated to look for that third slot that, if won, will go to Medina.

-Versatility: Margara in February is the best time to hold a championship, but the ISA events are 10 days long and you can't beat having 10 days of perfect waves breaking tubular, solid and heavy (which would perhaps give the Australian or American team a slight advantage).

There will be moments of rough and stormy seas and the Brazilians, any of the three, are masters when it comes to dealing with those seas.

-Government support and a well-equipped technical team: Brazil must already have its house rented, a masseuse, a nutritionist, trainers and support staff ready to go after that third slot. Especially with the gold medal from the previous Olympic cycle, and with Brazil being so dominant, the Brazilian Olympic Committee is a money-making machine for the Brazilian Surfing Confederation to get that third slot.

That is to say: Filipe, Joao and Gabriel will be in place and ready to compete in Puerto Rico with total ease in order to win that third slot.

We've already seen the Brazilian camp in Tahiti, and it was just a training camp: They had their own boat in the canal, their own jet ski, their own house with a masseuse, chef, etc. Do you know how much that costs in Tahiti? The Brazilians easily spent 200.000 dollars.
-Doing some simple math: The WSL tour is the most competitive on an annual basis, Brazil takes the 1st, 4th and 6th (totaling 11) of the ranking. USA takes the 2nd, 8th and 12th (totaling 22), Australia takes the 3rd, 5th and probably the 10th (totaling 18), Japan takes the 11th, 14th and one who is not even in the CT (Reo Inaba)… Considering the 10 stages of the tour, it is true, majority of right-handers, the Brazilians achieved a better ranking overall.

It just has to be said that something very strange would have to happen for Brazil not to win that extra slot in Puerto Rico and for Medina not to go to Paris 2024 and be a strong contender for the gold medal.