Cover photo: WSL/Cestari

Joao Chumbinho Chianca is guaranteed a place in the WSL Finals by just passing a series in Teahupoo, the tenth and final stage of the CT regular season. However, this does not guarantee him a place at the Paris 2024 Olympic Games.

This is because behind him, at a considerable distance, of more than 6.000 points, are Yago Dora and Gabriel Medina, the two Brazilians who could occupy fifth place in the WSL finals and who could leave him out of the maximum quota of two surfers per country that the Olympic movement demands.

If Chumbinho Chianca qualifies for the finals in fourth place and Gabriel Medina does so in fifth, the first series of the finals, which would pit them against each other, would be the one that ends up defining who goes to Paris 2024.

But it could happen at Teahupoo that one of its top specialists, John John Florence, who is practically qualified for Paris 2024, shines on one of his favourite waves and extinguishes the hopes of Medina and Dora.

Their scores:
4: Chumbo away with 42960
5: Yago with 36865
6: Medina with 35440
7: John John with 34290
8: Jack Robinson with 33950

Mathematically, even Connor O'Leary has a chance at 11, but a series of strange events would have to occur (all of them losing and Connor winning). The fight will take place between the fifth and eighth, all of whom are good in Tehupoo and are separated by less than 3000 points.

Thus, the scenarios are as follows:

-Without depending on anyone, Yago is guaranteed if he wins the event or if he comes second and Medina is not the winner. If Yago comes second and John John wins the event, Yago goes to the WSL finals.

-If Yago places third in the event, Medina surpasses him by placing second or better and John John only wins.

-If Yago places fifth in the event, Medina and John John will need to place second or better.

-If Yago is ranked ninth, Medina and John John must be ranked third. Medina would tie with Yago if he is ranked fifth and there they would break the tie by number of series won in the year.

-If Yago loses in one, Medina surpasses him by passing one series and John John by passing two, that is, placing fifth.

Basically, Yago placing fifth will require Medina and John John to achieve a very strong result, at least reaching the final.

And, Chianca, with a loss of one, demands a victory from Medina and John John in Chopes (with John John remaining tied and breaking the tie with the number of series won in the year).

Chianca could also be left out of the finals if he loses one and Yago finishes second and Medina first. Also, if Medina finishes second and John John first, they would be exactly tied and the tiebreaker would be based on the number of series won in the year.

Finally, with a slight chance to spoil the party is Jack Robinson, who if he wins or places second and manages to make all of the aforementioned teams do from fifth to worse than fifth, has a chance of making the finals.