Considering that 20 male and 20 female surfers will participate, the top 10 men in the WSL CT ranking will qualify, the top eight women, and the rest will be determined by the 2020 and 2019 World Surfing Games and the Lima 2019 Pan American Games, in that hierarchical order.

Considering that there are a maximum of two athletes per country, regardless of the qualification route (with one exception detailed below), the 20 men and 20 women who will compete in Tokyo will be formed as follows:

Men
10 of CT 2019
4 of the 2020 World Surfing Games
4 of the 2019 World Surfing Games
1 of the Pan American Games in Lima 2019
1 japanese

Ladies
8 of CT 2019
1 of the Pan American Games in Lima 2019
6 of the 2020 World Surfing Games
4 of the 2019 World Surfing Games
1 japanese

The hierarchy is in this order: WSL CT, WSG 2020, and WSG 2019 + Pan American Games

The CT: 10 men and 8 women will qualify, moving up the rankings as the quotas of a maximum of two per gender per country are filled.

The World Surfing Games 2020: The top 4 eligible men and the top 6 eligible women. Eligible refers to the fact that if the quota has already been filled by the CT, there will be no more places (something that is expected to happen with Brazil, Australia and the United States, for example).

Two surfers of the same gender from the same nation can easily qualify in this test.

The World Surfing Games 2019: They will act as a regional ranking system, through which the best eligible African, the best eligible Asian, the best eligible European and the best eligible Oceanian surfer will qualify.

File 2019: The best eligible male and female surfer of the event will qualify through surfing's first participation in the second largest multi-sport event on the planet.

Host Nation Quota: One man and one woman from the host nation, Japan, will be guaranteed a quota spot unless the quota spot has already been filled through the above hierarchies. If athletes from Japan qualify through the above hierarchies, their quota spots will be reallocated to the first eligible surfers from the 2020 ISA World Surfing Games.

Some possible or interesting situations
-A surfer from a qualifying country can win the 2019 World Surfing Games, but if two surfers from the same country place first and second at the 2020 World Surfing Games, the first surfer would not go to the Games, the second two would.

-A surfer from a country with quotas can be Pan American Champion in 2019, but if later in the 2020 World Surfing Games, two surfers from the same country are in the qualification zone, the first surfer mentioned would not go and a quota would be opened to the next country with quota to go through the Pan American Games.

-If the CT quota is not filled, the winning nation of the 2020 World Surfing Games is given the opportunity to bring a third athlete, either the next one from the CT or the QS.

-With the exception of the CT members, no fully secured Olympic qualification can be held until the 2020 World Surfing Games are over.

-Athletes who qualified through the 2019 CT will be forced to compete at the 2020 World Surfing Games, which will be the last gasp of hope for all other countries. There will be a very interesting situation where a promising surfer from a certain nation still with a spot falls in the same heat against John John Florence (for example) and falls in round 1.