Updated Olympic forecast: Waves will be there but wind will be a challenge
There are conflicting opinions on what might happen, but everything indicates that there will be a quick start with good waves and conditions on the 27th and 28th.
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The talk in the Olympic surfing corridors in Tahiti, where a good part of the surfers and the work crew are already present, is that the forecast has been changing a lot and this makes it difficult to present a clear and consistent picture among all the specialists.
Surfline, which had already said three weeks before the Olympic surfing that the seas would not be huge, that was for sure, has not published an update. Two of its main meteorologists, Kevin Wallis and Kurt Korte, are part of the technical team for the event, and they seem to be taking great care about what they publish.
Anyway, what Surfline shows is the following:

What Windguru shows is the following:

In a fine analysis by some specialists, it is discordant. On the one hand, Nathan Florence says that the 27th is not a championship day, even though the conditions will be good for him, the swell will not have arrived. But the 28th will be, although with a very westerly swell, and that the 29th and 30th will continue to be good and there will be a championship.
“If the forecast holds, we’ll have something the surfing world will be proud to show off at the Olympics. Six to eight foot waves and some 6 foot beasts,” Nathan says. “Epic, I’m excited to see something like that.”
And, the Florence data is no less important because it compares it with WindGuru and says that the forecasts are consistent.
He says it will probably be similar to what this year's CT was.
Blogger Old Surf Dad, meanwhile, says that for him the days are from July 30 to August 2 without giving too many explanations.
Meanwhile, according to the Surfer, the photographer who spends a lot of time in Tahiti, Dom Mosqueira, said: “There is swell and if it comes it will be epic. Unfortunately the winds are not. So it will be very windy and strange, but there is still time for that to change. And if that changes it could be hot. If it stays as it is, it will be onshore, from the west, peaks of death. If it gets organized and the winds start to cooperate, it could get really good.”
Local Ryan Gallina says it’s clear that the 27th and 28th will be two normal Teahupoo days. That is, waves, good direction and good conditions. He says those two days should be eventful because then a storm moves in. “Sunday night, early Monday, we’ll start to see the influence of this storm and it will start to change things up a little bit,” he says. He adds, “It won’t be standard Chopes but it will definitely be interesting. If you say four to five feet from that direction, it could literally be six to eight. That’s for the first three days of the window. It won’t be small. There will be waves the first five days of the window.”
The waves will be generated at short intervals because the storm will be close and that same storm is the one that is presumed to be entering Tahiti in the days following the auspicious beginning.
In other words, for Nathan the event would go from the 28th onwards, for Gallina from the 27th and for Old Surf Dad from the 30th.
What is clear is that there will be waves and that the swell will be low-period from the west. The challenge is the wind.
DUKE's presence in Tahiti to cover Olympic surfing is also possible thanks to Xavier Aguirre, Philippe Demarsan, Pepe Gelos, Chifle Perez del Castillo, Juanja Vargas, Mateo Christodulu, Josefina and Tomas Barbe, Monica Ugalde, Pilar Aguerrebere, Edu Fernandez, Wilma Ehni, Guzman Sari and Gonzalo Madrid.
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