Pictured above: Francisco Morosini is going for his first Uruguayan title against two surfers who already have four each. The combination of power surfing, his aerial game and his ability in the tubes make him a strong contender. He is in first place and with a decisive stage at home, he has everything to take the crown. All photos: USU/Juan Pablo Malcom

Francisco Morosini, Sebastián Olarte and Luisma Iturria are the only surfers with a mathematical chance of becoming Uruguayan surfing champions next Monday in the fourth stage of the local circuit (if the federation of that country confirms the predictions and the yellow alert changes to green light).

The ranking at this moment is like this:
1: Francisco Morosini: 2590 points
2: Sebastian Olarte: 2470
3: Lucas Madrid: 2140
4: Luisma Iturria: 1970
5: Julian Perez: 1955

With three stages out of four adding up to the final ranking, the mark to reach is set by La Paloma native Francisco Morosini who already has 2590 thanks to a victory in the first stage, a second in the second and a third in the third.

This leaves everyone out of the race except Iturria.  Olarte, both are already four-time Uruguayan champions and will seek to separate themselves next Monday, but first they must overcome Morosini.

The scenarios are as follows:
-The only two surfers who depend on themselves to become champions are Olarte and Morosini; either of them, by winning the stage, can become champions without depending on the other.

-Iturria only becomes champion by winning the event and hoping that the other two finish third or worse. In other words, if Olarte or Morosini manage to finish second, Luisma would be out of contention, even if he wins the event, he doesn't get there.

-To take the lead in the ranking from Morosini, Olarte must finish third or better. And if he finishes third, he will have to pray that the man from La Paloma does not finish second or better (with a third as the worst result, Morosini only improves his score by finishing first or second).

-If Olarte finishes third and Morosini does not improve his score, there would be a three-way tie that would be broken by the result of the best fourth stage for each of them. If the tie is exact in the four stages, it will be necessary to see what the local federation determines, but many times the criterion used is that the last stage has more weight.

-If Olarte is second and Morosini does not win, Olarte is champion.

The wave forecast indicates the arrival of a powerful swell. Specialist in perfect waves, Luisma Iturria, who is on fire after winning the previous stage, is the favourite. But the other two should not be ruled out either: Morosini will play at home in Rocha and Olarte has already had good results in good waves.

On the other hand, it is worth saying that among the ladies, Delfina Morosini is already the Uruguayan champion because she won the three stages completed, no matter what happens on Monday, the one from La Paloma is already the champion.