The proximity of surfing's debut at the Pan American Games, which this year will take place in Lima 2019, has raised the fervor of fans, federations and athletes. The main incentive is the two places (one for women and one for men) that the event offers to enter the surfing event at the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games.

Federations, athletes and fans have repeatedly said that the first team to qualify for the historic Olympic debut will be known, but this is not the case.

The top finisher will not be known until the 2020 ISA World Surfing Games.

All this is based on the hierarchy system that establishes:

1: CT
2: WSG 2020
3: WSG 2019 and Pan American Games (they are regional and do not “clash” with each other)

This means that whoever wins the Lima 2019 surfing event will not be able to celebrate their qualification for Tokyo 2020.

You may have average chances, great chances, or none at all.

For example: If the Brazilian Robson Santos wins, there will be no chance that he will go to Tokyo 2020 because those who will qualify will be the Toledos and Medinas who are in the CT (the Olympic quota is a maximum of two per country).

If a Costa Rican like Anthony Fillingim wins, for example, his chances would be average because it could easily happen that later in 2020, at the World Surfing Games, two of the four best eligible qualifiers would be Carlos Muñoz and Noe Mar McGonagle.

The chances may be greater, for example, for a Mimi Barona from Ecuador who does not have many competitors from her country with a chance of getting among the best women at the 2020 World Surfing Games. In any case, “mathematically” any surfer from that country would have a chance of going to Tokyo through the event that has the highest hierarchy.

When the Lima 2019 competition concludes, the champion can simply be crowned and the chances of the different surfers going to Tokyo can be measured, but none of them can be taken for granted.